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    "Seo Pelé" completaria 75 anos neste dia 9 de dezembro.

    "Seo Pelé" é meu pai, que nos deixou no dia 6?? de março de 2023.

    Conhecido e famoso pintor de paredes em Sertãozinho, no interior de São Paulo, "Seo Pelé" era um?? santista fanático.

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    Esta é a minha seleção do Brasileirão

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    Abel fica? Medo?? e delírio em São Paulo

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    Exceto os familiares mais próximos, pouquíssimas pessoas sabiam?? que o seu nome era Antônio Evaristo Rosa, mas era difícil alguém não notar rapidamente abot pokerstarspaixão pelo Santos?? Futebol Clube.

    Também pudera, com esse apelido, fica muito fácil.

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    Certa vez minha mãe e minhas tias, suas irmãs, me disseram que era pela semelhança física, mas
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    s antigas?? do "Seo Pelé", que aliás não gostava de ser chamado de senhor, não corroboram esse tese.

    Outra possibilidade, essa ainda mais?? duvidosa, é o que o apelido teria surgido porque meu pai, quando jogava futebol nas fazendas e usinas da região,?? era um ponta-direita arisco e apenas esforçado.

    Entretanto, na zoeira dos amigos próximos, nem de longe, dizem, tinha talento para se?? tornar um jogador profissional.

    Não o vi jogar, mas sempre o admirei pelo talento em usar as tintas para embelezar casas,?? apartamentos, escritórios e afins. Nisso Pelé Pintor foi o disparado o melhor que eu vi.

    Assim como meu pai, a minha?? mãe, Leila Maria da Silva Rosa, também é santista. Pelo que eu me lembro, ambos nunca me forçaram a ser?? santista. Naquela coisa de o filho, antes de nascer, os pais contam para todos que o filho vai seguir o?? time da família.

    Digamos que esse "descuido" teve o lado ruim, fui ver meu time campeão pela primeira vez em 1993,?? aos 21 anos, amarguei dois rebaixamentos (2002 e 2012), mas atualmente a fase é da multiplicação de títulos.

    Vocês sabem de?? qual time estou falando.

    Bom, o futebol uniu demais eu e meu pai. Foi com ele a minha primeira vez em?? um estádio de futebol, curiosamente em um Santos e Comercial, em Ribeirão Preto.

    Graças a ele peguei o gosto pelo rádio.?? Ouvir jogos, os programas esportivos diários, os debates antes e depois das partidas.

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    OLHAR APURADO

    Uma curadoria diária com as opiniões dos?? colunistas do bot pokerstars sobre os principais assuntos do noticiário.

    Mesmo com tudo isso, nunca pensei em ser jornalista esportivo, que virou?? motivo de orgulho para o "Pelé Pintor" nas resenhas com os seus amigos nos botecos do bairro.

    Nós nunca brigamos ou?? tiramos o sarro um do outro por causa de futebol e da rivalidade entre as nossas camisas.

    Em dezembro de 2023,?? eu e a minha filha, Anna Rhúbia, escolhemos uma camisa do Santos (essa da
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    Enquanto o seu túmulo era coberto por terra, eu?? puxei o hino não oficial do Santos. Consegui ir até o "glorioso alvinegro praiano, campeão absoluto desse ano".

    Dói demais relembrar?? essa cena, mas era o que tinha ser feito em um dos dias mais tristes de nossa família e amigos?? queridos.

    Desde 2023, ano que comprei essa camisa e do último título, os dirigentes do Santos iniciaram um processo de maltratar,?? com requintes de crueldade, os seus torcedores até culminar, na última quarta-feira, com o primeiro rebaixamento debot pokerstarshistória.

    Agora é?? amargar a Série B do Campeonato Brasileiro.

    Uma mancha terrível para o clube formador de tantos e tantos craques. Nem vou?? citar Pelé, pois este será sempre o maior de todos.

    Ao lembrar como "Seo Pelé" ou Pelé Pintor vibrava com as?? vitórias e títulos, e o seu semblante de desolação na derrotas, só posso encerrar a coluna assim.

    Pai, o senhor faz?? muita falta, mas não merecia ver a tragédia do seu Santos.

    Texto em que o autor apresenta e defende suas ideias?? e opiniões, a partir da interpretação de fatos e dados.

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    at the time of publication.

    This article is adapted from The Biggest Bluff: How I

    Learned to?? Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win by Maria Konnikova, published by

    Penguin Press, an imprint of Penguin Publishing Group, a?? division of Penguin Random

    House, LLC. Copyright (c) 2024 by Maria Konnikova.

    I’d like to introduce you to a game.

    Not?? the game I’ve spent the past three years immersing myself in, poker, but another

    game—one I came across as I?? sat at poker table after poker table around the world:

    Lodden Thinks.

    Lodden Thinks was created one day in the mid-2000s,?? when two poker pros

    found themselves bored at a televised poker table. The Magician and the

    Unabomber—Antonio Esfandiari and Phil?? Laak, the former nicknamed for his past

    profession, the latter for his affinity for hoodies pulled low over his face?? and

    sunglasses shielding his eyes—soon came up with a way to pass the time. At the table

    was Johnny Lodden,?? a Norwegian pro and mutual friend. They would take turns asking him

    a question—and then bet on what he thought?? the answer was. Lodden would then supply his

    own response, and the person who’d been closest to Lodden’s answer would?? win the round.

    The game took off, and soon, players around the world were betting anywhere from a

    dollar or?? two to tens of thousands on a single

    question.

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    The beauty of Lodden Thinks is that the real,

    factual answer to?? any given query doesn’t actually matter. The game is all about

    perception and psychology: What does Lodden (or whoever is?? the target in this

    particular iteration) think the answer is—and can you be the one to see the world from

    ?? his perspective more closely than your opponents? In a sense, it’s the heart of not

    only poker but many a?? social situation. How good are you at figuring out how others see

    the world—and at gearing your own actions accordingly??? Remember: Objective reality

    doesn’t actually matter. Subjective perception, and your ability to tune into it

    accurately, is key to the?? win.

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    On a 2008 episode of Poker After Dark, a

    popular television show of high-stakes cash games, two high-profile players, Phil?? Ivey

    and Doyle Brunson, played a round of Lodden Thinks forR$10,000.

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    “I want

    to bet on Clint Eastwood’s age,” Brunson says?? to open this particular game. Daniel

    Negreanu volunteers to guess. He’ll be the Lodden. Once he’s “locked it down”—that is,

    ?? has thought of his response and locked it in—the guessing can

    begin.

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    “I’ll play this one,” comes Phil Ivey’s voice. He

    ?? turns to Brunson. “Will you play this one with me? For 10,000?”

    Brunson nods.

    “Yeah.”

    “OK.”

    “OK.”

    Brunson starts at 21. Ivey can now?? either accept the under or

    propose a higher number. He counters with 40. Now Brunson can either accept the under

    ?? or go higher. Immediately, he counters with 60. Now things start getting more serious.

    Ivey stares him down a bit?? before offering, “62.” Sixty-four, counters Brunson with a

    smirk. Sixty-six. Sixty-eight.

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    Phil reflects. “How dumb is Daniel … let’s

    see.” He?? knows his edge is to read his Lodden. He doesn’t need to have a clue as to

    Eastwood’s real age.

    “You’re?? not signaling him, are you?” asks Brunson.

    “In some way we

    are,” Ivey responds. Because of course, part of the game?? is watching the Lodden’s

    reactions and seeing what you can extract from his responses. Like so many things in

    life,?? this is a game of people, not hard truths.

    There’s a slight pause as Ivey shoves

    all his chips into the?? middle of the table with pocket sevens—they are still playing a

    high-stakes poker game, after all, and the pot is?? now more thanR$8,000—and then

    counters with 69. Seventy-two, says Brunson, as Ivey sees that he is up against a

    superior?? pair of eights. Ivey comes back with 73. Brunson ups it to 74. Ivey accepts

    the under and they turn?? to Negreanu. “You lose,” Brunson says confidently to Ivey as

    they wait for the answer.

    Negreanu laughs. “I had 73.”

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    Ivey

    loses?? the pot in the middle but wins 10 grand all the same. Brunson shakes his head in

    disbelief. “He’s 77.”?? It’s like he can’t believe that someone could possibly not know

    that.

    Lodden Thinks is a neat distillation of so much?? of what I’ve been trying to

    articulate about the complexity of poker—and the complexity of the life decisions that

    it?? models.

    As Ivey departs—with that hand, he’s lost hisR$20,000 buy-in—Phil Hellmuth,

    another elite player at the table, chimes in, reminding him?? that he owes him from their

    Lodden Thinks bout earlier. One dime. Not slang—actually 10 cents.

    Ivey rummages in his

    pocket?? and throws a dime over the table. This round of Lodden Thinks is at an end.

    Brunson knew the answer,?? but Ivey knew his man.

    Sometimes, though, knowing your man may

    not be enough if you’re not careful to observe the?? specifics of the interaction—and too

    much personal knowledge can actually get in the way of winning. Erik Seidel—my guide

    through?? the world of poker and one of the most respected and successful players in the

    game—recalls one of his own?? most painful Lodden moments, against the Lodden master

    himself, Antonio Esfandiari. It was 2014, and Seidel had come to South?? Africa for

    aR$100,000 tournament. He hadn’t particularly cared to play in it, but Dan Harrington,

    another famed stalwart of the?? poker world, had been trying to complete his quest of

    traveling to 50 countries, and they had already traveled to?? Australia for the Aussie

    Millions, so the timing seemed opportune. And so they made their way to Johannesburg.

    The tournament?? was a bust—only nine players, all pros—but the trip was proving to be

    eventful. A safari planned, a stay in?? Cape Town, some tours of local sites, a little

    time spent away from it all.

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    That morning,

    Seidel, Harrington, Jungleman (the?? nickname of poker pro Dan Cates; he happened to have

    captured theR$100K a few days earlier), and Esfandiari found themselves?? on a bus on

    their way to a lion park. It’s not surprising that they were soon playing Lodden

    Thinks;?? at the time, it seemed Esfandiari would take any opportunity to engage in the

    game he’d helped create.

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    The Lodden on?? this particular round was Dan

    Harrington, and Seidel and Esfandiari were doing the betting. The question: How much

    money would?? it take for Harrington to forgo wearing socks ever again? Soon, the guesses

    were flying, with Seidel quickly arriving at?? the half-million mark. Seidel was

    confident: He and Harrington were old friends, after all; he knew his man. The stakes

    ?? were high.

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    “I’m pretty sure it was overR$5,000 for the question,” Seidel

    tells me. “And it wouldn’t surprise me if it?? was 11 or 12 grand.”

    Esfandiari quickly

    agreed to the under, and they looked expectantly at their target. The winner: Antonio

    ?? Esfandiari. Harrington had put his number at aroundR$160,000.

    “That’s crazy!” Seidel

    remembers telling him. “To never wear socks again?”

    Even now he?? shakes his head. “It

    was so tilting. I mean, he goes to the gym, he exercises. No socks, ever?

    Really?”

    Seidel?? had done what he was supposed to do: He’d used his knowledge of

    Harrington, their yearslong friendship, to decide that?? something so uncomfortable would

    command a hefty price tag.

    Harrington certainly didn’t need the cash.

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    But

    knowing your man in the abstract?? isn’t enough. “I wasn’t watching him closely enough to

    see his reaction,” Seidel recalls. “Antonio was.”

    The abstract doesn’t matter, no

    ?? matter how honed your portrait may be. What matters is the moment. His current state.

    His current frame of mind.

    As?? it turns out, Seidel knew Harrington better than

    Harrington knew himself. After giving it some thought, Harrington admitted that his

    ?? stated number was likely far too low. But Seidel had already lost. “I have to admit I

    was really tempted?? to just pay him theR$160,000 and make him suffer through never

    wearing socks again,” he says.

    Seidel laughs. “Antonio has probably?? made millions on

    Lodden Thinks.”

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    For weeks after I first encounter the game,

    I keep playing through the layers of Lodden?? Thinks in my mind. It’s a neat distillation

    of so much of what I’ve been trying to articulate about the?? complexity of poker—and the

    complexity of the life decisions that it models. It’s a constant circle. There’s the

    math, the?? calculations, the strategy derived from hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo

    simulations for the game-theoretical solutions. But there’s so much?? more. As John von

    Neumann, the father of game theory, knew, the human always gets in the way of the

    ?? mathematical model. That’s why he couldn’t even build the perfect model: He wanted

    humanity, and humanity could always surprise you.?? You need to know the base strategy.

    You need to adjust based on the specific individuals. And then you need?? to adjust

    further based on how those specific individuals are feeling in that exact moment, in

    that exact situation. And?? what if they don’t fully analyze everything themselves and,

    like Harrington, confidently state the wrong guess about their own preferences,

    ?? forgetting for a moment what such a guess would actually mean? You have to account for

    that, too. Otherwise you’ll?? lose the bout of Lodden, the hand of poker, the tactical

    negotiation. Someone can always be confidently wrong, even about?? their own mind.

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